Existing home sales decline in economic uncertainty

Existing-home sales weakened against a backdrop of an eroding economy, according to the National Association of Realtors^®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 8.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 4.49 million units in November from a downwardly revised level of 4.91 million in October, and are 10.6 percent below the 5.02 million-unit pace in November 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected a decline. “The quickly deteriorating conditions in the job market, stock market, and consumer confidence in October and November have knocked down-home sales to another level. We hope the home sales impact from the stock market crash turns out to be short-lived, as was the case in 1987 and 2001,” he said.

“It is, therefore, imperative to provide incentives for homebuyers to get back into the market. It also depends on how effectively Congress and the new administration can help facilitate the short sales process and unclog the mortgage pipeline – impediments remain for some buyers with good credit,” Yun said.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.09 percent in November from 6.20 percent in October; the rate was 6.21 percent in November 2007. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year rate fell to 5.19 percent – the lowest on record since the series began in 1971.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said it’s crucial to enact sufficient housing stimulus to spark an economic recovery. “We need more than low-interest rates to encourage enough buyers to enter the market and meaningfully draw down inventory, which would stabilize home prices – that, in turn, would help the economy to recover,” he said.

“We should extend the first-time buyer tax credit to all homebuyers and eliminate the repayment feature, and make permanent the higher loan limits that are vital in high-cost markets – the faster we do this, the faster housing and the economy can recover,” McMillan said.

McMillan said NAR is grateful that the Treasury, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Federal Reserve have been working to bring interest rates down on most mortgages to historic lows.

Total housing inventory at the end of November rose 0.1 percent to 4.20 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 11.2-month supply² at the current sales pace, up from a 10.3-month supply in October.

Despite an overall softening in sales, there has been a solid trend of rising activity in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida markets. “Sales are rising only in areas with large numbers of distressed properties as bargain hunters take advantage of discounted home prices,” Yun said.

The national median existing-home price³ for all housing types was $181,300 in November, down 13.2 percent from November 2007 when the median was $208,800. There remains a significant downward distortion in the current price from a large number of distress sales at discounted prices; the median is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

Yun cautioned that there will be negative consequences if housing stimulus is delayed. “Falling home prices would lead to faster contraction in consumer spending and further deterioration in bank balance sheets. More importantly, falling home values would lead to higher loan defaults, including those recently modified distressed mortgages.”

Single-family home sales fell 8.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in November from a level of 4.37 million in October, and are 8.8 percent below a 4.41 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $180,800 in November, down 12.8 percent from November 2007.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 13.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 470,000 units in November from 540,000 in October, and are 23.1 percent below the 611,000-unit pace in November 2007. The median existing condo price⁴ was $185,400 in November, down 15.5 percent from a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast dropped 12.0 percent to an annual pace of 730,000 in November, and are 18.0 percent lower than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $257,700, down 0.1percent from November 2007.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 7.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.00 million and are 16.0 percent below November 2007. The median price in the Midwest was $142,400, down 11.2 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales dropped 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 1.64 million in November, and are 17.6 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $154,500, which is 10.6 percent lower than November 2007.

Existing-home sales in the West declined 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.12 million in November but are 17.9 percent higher than November 2007. The median price in the West was $242,500, down 25.5 percent from a year ago.

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NOTE: References to performance in states or metro areas are from unpublished raw data used to analyze regional trends; please contact your local association of Realtors^® for more information.

¹The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.

Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.

²Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982. Condos were tracked quarterly prior to 1999 when single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases.

³The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.

⁴Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price can be higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.

Existing-home sales for December will be released January 26, and the next Pending Home Sales Index & Forecast is scheduled for release January 6; release times are 10 a.m. EST.